Amazing night last night on so many levels, beyond the outcome.
Beginning with a bit of a guilty pleasure, I turned the channel to Faux News just as Ohio was being called to savor the victory just a bit. I tuned in just in time to watch the network report that the Romney campaign was challenging the “early” Ohio call, which was backed up by Karl Rove. Hilariously, he had Megyn Kelly head down to their sequestered polling group that was making the calls. Megyn reported to Michael Barone and others among the polling experts (Barone, incidentally, had earlier insisted the results, based on the polling, would result in a Republican landslide) that turdblossom was questioning their results. “Are you questioning Karl Rove,” she wondered. Explaining that they were 99.95 percent sure based on the science, the folks in the polling room defended themselves. Megyn returned to the News desk reporting that science was triumphant. Rove continued his questions, but shifted his argument toward the importance of counting all the votes (was he really in Florida in 2000?). The remarkable scene played out amidst a context of days of Republican insistence (despite all the statistical evidence to the contrary) that polls were just not picking up that intangible “republican enthusiasm.” Even more stunning, there was no way that the electorate could be growing less white. There was no way, Republican experts argued, that non-whites would make up as high a percent of the electorate as they had in 2008.
Which brings me to the subject of this post: namely just how much the electorate has been changing and will continue to change. In 2008, whites accounted for 74% of the electorate, in 2012 it was 72%, and by 2020 that number will decline to 66% (and be about 69% in 2016.) Those are absolutely stunning numbers continuing a trend that has been clear for over twenty years. Indeed, in 1988, white voters accounted for over 85% of the electorate. The trend is clear, linear, and remarkable. The electorate has also grown younger and women make up a greater portion of it. And, these trends have been common knowledge. More remarkably, it is clear that the shifting Latino population will continue to move the electoral map in favor of Democrats, including making Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and even Iowa more solidly Democratic. Remarkably, it will also (coupled with increases in other non-white population groups) push states like Georgia, Arizona, and even Texas toward the Democrats, perhaps as early as 2016 or 2020. Consider this map from Latino Vote Map that provides data that allows users to literally see the changes. (Of course, these shifts are not inevitable, and in fact clever political positioning by Republicans could alter the numbers. Consider, for example, Karl Rove’s and George W. Bush’s attempts to expand Latino membership in the Republican party–albeit a strategy that was rejected by other Republican elected leaders.)
One outcome of last night, for me at least, is that President Obama has created the possibility of a new coalition that include a diverse swath of Americans that crosses class, sex, race, ethnicity, and sexual preference. Enacting the Dream Act and comprehensive immigration reform, continuing his efforts to improve the lives of women through matters of choice and equal pay, standing up for equality of rights and opportunity, and defending union and workers’ rights would enhance the power of that coalition, whose strength will only grow in coming years.
It is my hope that Republicans will see this future and shift away from the paranoia and xenophobia of the tea party, and more broadly shift away from Nixon’s infamous Southern strategy. Though I don’ t care whether Republicans ever win another election, I do care about building an inclusive democracy and would like to see a political conversation in which hate and fear of the non-whites was not a defining characteristic. Alternately, maybe the present two-party system will disintegrate as the Republican party collapses under the weight of its own anger (like a black hole) to be replaced by a more robust and nuanced multi-party democracy. Either way, the electorate is changing and America will change with it. I wonder if we are really ready for that exciting new future.
Spoken like someone who has never lived on the Mexican border or, for that matter, anywhere near large numbers of non-whites. I see that your hometown of Chagrin Falls is 98% white and upper middle class. If you’re so anti-xenophobic, anti-racist, and pro-minority, why don’t you put your money where your mouth is and move your family into the city?
There’s a reason why working class whites in heavily black and Latino areas are xenophobic. We’ve spent our lives being terrorized and bullied by the non-whites you extol. Until you’ve lived this experience, you can’t possibly understand. Stop the pompous lecturing.
Mark,
Based on the deep seated hatred expressed by the previous comment to your post, I want to share a letter with you that I think is apropos for the kind of vitriol expressed above.
I prefer to remain anonymous. Though I think you can guess my identity. I did not write the quoted letter below. But I wholeheartedly agree with it, especially as a Republican who is embarrassed by the direction his party has taken in the last 20 years.
TPLH
Quoted text below. (Note it is long, but worth it).
I’m seeing Americans post photos of our Flag hung upside down because the President won reelection. They’re defending this action as a “Naval sign of distress”. Let me tell you something: you are not on a battleship, you are a manager at McDonalds in Follansbee, WV, and you are in fact, a lunatic.
I’ve avoided “spiking the football” over a great night for the President and for common sense in the Senate – Richard Murdock and Todd Akin deserved more than a loss. But I’ve held off, because I respect, am friends with, and on certain issues agree with, many patriotic Republicans who work hard to make this country a better place and simply disagreed with who should be Commander in Chief. That’s fair and healthy.
And, I also didn’t spike the football because I’ve lost elections before and I know how terrible it feels.
It’s called maturity and not enough people in either party have it.
The following jaw punch is not directed at common sense Republicans, nor does it condone radicals on the Left. It is directed at the right wing fanatics who put party before country, conspiracy before reality, and ideology before science and intellect.
To Tea Party Patriots and hardcore Religious Engineers:
Republicans lost because their party leadership and most candidates feared you, listened to you, and looked the other way on important issues as you picked the dumbest, craziest nominees in key primaries (Murdock and Akin), or converted otherwise sensible, experienced candidates to Crazy Town (Romney).
There’s nothing wrong with wanting limited government. I do. There’s nothing wrong with believing in God, the Golden Rule, or wanting to reduce abortions. I do, too. But you’ve taken it too damn far and scare the shit out of people you could otherwise persuade.
Yes, the message and messenger matter (you’re failing at both, BTW), but no Madison Avenue P.R. firm, K Street lobbying firm, Fox News “analyst”, or local chapter of “Freedom Works” can sell the flaming dung you’re slinging.
Smart people can lose. But smart people always learn.
You didn’t lose because you “weren’t conservative enough” or because the country has become full of lazy “takers” who don’t want to earn a living or just want America to “turn in to Europe”.
You didn’t lose because of Hurricane Sandy or because Chris Christie hugged the President on TV – they were both doing their jobs.
You didn’t lose because of a liberal media, liberal college campuses, liberal polls that were “weighted to Democrats” (mostly because they were accurate), or because of “election fraud”… actually, that probably benefited you this time.
No. You lost because your policies, tone, conspiracies, rigid inflexibility and irrational rhetoric helped align enough moderates, swing voters, and minority groups whom otherwise could be persuaded by Republicans, to align with Democrats and a beatable incumbent.
It’s not that you didn’t get your message out, it’s that we all actually heard it and threw up a little in our mouths.
There isn’t a mandate for Democrats in this election. Liberalism wasn’t rewarded in this election. However, calm pragmatism, compassion, working together, compromise and sincerity were rewarded. People may not have agreed with President Obama, but more felt he was sincere and that he understood their daily problems, fears, and dreams. If you don’t trust what the polls say, take a look at who is sworn in on January 20th. I thought you’d at least believe in Math when it came to counting to 270.
Sincerity is the only thing in politics you can’t fake. You can’t teach it. No matter how shiny a candidate’s bio is, how smooth he is, or how perfect the gray hairs rest on his temples — any average Joe on the street can spot a bullshitter.
Mitt is a generous and good man, but he didn’t know who he was or “needed” to be at any given time in that campaign. That’s largely his fault for lacking core convictions or personal toughness (Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush possessed both traits – that’s why they won).
But you, the right wing base of the party, who drove so many of us moderate republicans out the door years ago, were the main catalyst. Your inability to reason, compromise, or let new facts and evidence challenge your predetermined outcomes led millions of moderates to no longer be able to stand on stage with you.
Frankly, you’re embarrassing – more so than a crazy family member at dinner, or having your mom drop you off at a high school dance.
You say stupid shit and look stupid saying it.
You pass amendments to ban flag burning and then hang it upside down and post it on Facebook when you lose.
You preach limited government in the economy when Democrats are in charge and then look the other way when you’re in charge.
You want a government small enough to stay out of corporations and banks but big enough for bedrooms and hospital respirators (see Schiavo, Terri).
There’s a hatred inside of you that burns in a way that scares normal people.
You made unlikely allies in large corporations who are more interested in tax breaks and loopholes even if the government has to cut your Medicare and Social Security or cut education to a point where states and local governments have no financial choice but to educate your children in portable trailer classrooms with 35 other students.
Would these corporations do this just to help pad their quarterly earnings reports with certain tax and regulatory policies? You bet your sweet ass they do. And you better believe they’re happy to have you make the “freedom” argument as “concerned citizen patriots” on their behalf.
Yet, after those corporations spent billions on TV adds and herded you like sheep over the last half decade to discredit Barack Obama for everything from being a “Godless communist” — to his “being born in Kenya and hatching a secret plot to take down America” — to Obamacare’s “death panels and job killing regulations” –
YOU still lost.
After having a Senate Republican Leader state that his party’s top priority in Congress was to make “Obama a one term President” and a House of Representatives that blocked everything he tried to do and then had the brass to criticize him for “not getting anything done” –
YOU still lost.
After attacking gay people who want equal protection under the law (BTW, I’m referring to the 14th amendment to the constitution, I know you forget most of the amendments after the 2nd one) –
YOU still lost.
After attacking the Hispanic community who’s tired of being spoken “at” like criminals, attacking low income women who rely on Planned Parenthood for services of which 98% have nothing to do with abortion, and attacking relatively trivial things like PBS that children and adults enjoy as “1” damn television channel that doesn’t include Honey Boo Boo or a “Fox News Breaking Alert” announcing Obama’s latest “Czar” appointment –
YOU still lost.
And after throwing all the red meat in your warped political base out to the rest of the country to eat, the majority of Americans weren’t hungry for it and didn’t trust ordering from your unhealthy, de-regulated menu –
YOU still lost.
You can read me the constitution, but you clearly don’t have a practical understanding of what you’ve read, heard on television, or forwarded to your entire email list of like minded xenophobes.
This country is great because our founders were smart enough to limit the government’s power and give the people enough freedom and authority to correct their own mistakes in pursuit of a “more perfect union” (it’s in the first damn line of the Preamble, in case you can’t find it in your Tea Party Constitution Cliffs Notes).
Our founders were utterly brilliant and sophisticated. I don’t like to speak for them, but I doubt they would have been friends with Glenn Beck or Rush Limbaugh or Sarah Palin. Nah, they wouldn’t have made the guest list at Mt. Vernon or Monticello.
But let’s be clear, our founders weren’t perfect. They owned slaves. Only White male property owners had a say in things. Women, blacks, native americans, and other constituencies had to wait for an American dream and in many cases, are still waiting and working for it. Speaking of work, children were working 12-16 hour days with zero safety protections in statute. Zero.
The constitution, subsequent amendments and Supreme Court rulings and opinions since 1800 aren’t perfectly clear (those who think they are tend to have had a healthy serving of Kool-Aid and have never watched oral arguments at the Supreme Court).
The founders knew that they, and the constitution they drafted, weren’t perfect. This is why they added a Bill of Rights and why they created a Supreme Court and a process that has allowed us to add 27 amendments to their work of art.
Their imperfection is what led to a Civil War to prove that human and civil rights aren’t a “states’ rights issue” – they’re endowed by our creator, not by legislatures in Mississippi or Alabama, and they’re protected equally in our constitution, but also in our democratically passed laws.
I run from the Capitol steps to the Lincoln Memorial most mornings that I’m in Washington. I may not be fast or smart, but I can read what’s carved in stone.
Please. I welcome a challenge to what I’ve said. If you think because I voted for President Obama that I’m a socialist or that I don’t want a better America, I’m happy to take time from running a business I’ve co-founded and time from money I’m trying to raise for Big Brothers Big Sisters of America to pause and give you a fresh one. At no charge.
But I do ask this: be a real Patriot. Look at that flag you’ve hung upside down. Look at what you’ve done to it and what that means. Thousands of our bravest men and women, braver than me, just lost limbs and in many cases their lives so that Iraqis and Afghanis could vote however they see fit. I did that on Tuesday and so did you. That’s what that flag stands for – equal access to a process, not a guarantee for any of our desired outcomes.
A country that defeated Hitler, Mussolini, and bin Laden won’t crumble because the guy you wanted to be President got beat.
You lost. Now learn from it.
Sincerely,
A Proud American
I now live almost in East Cleveland and formerly lived in Tucson for 17 years, so I hope MY residency credentials are good enough for your standards, because I support Mark’s take on things 100%. It’s not where your body lives that matters, it’s where your head’s at!
Apparently Mr responder here is doubly prejudiced. By assuming the authority this blogpost only has the experience of living in one community, he make the proverbial ass out of himself. Mr. Tebeau spent decades living on the south side of Chicago in the middle of a neighborhood that was 70% non-white…and somehow miraculously was NEVER terrorized.
It is ignorant fools like you who only see color of skin as the problem who bring this discussion into the gutter.